Which recent Pokémon set is most worth opening? (2024-2026)

By Eduard Mihaila · July 10, 2026

“Which set is most worth opening?” is really two questions. Which set gives you the most card value per euro spent on packs? And which set is the most fun gamble? This article answers the first with real numbers: average card prices from the ~60,000-card PixelBinder database, community pull rates, and current Cardmarket booster prices. No recycled listicles, because we built the model ourselves.

Quick answer: no recent Pokémon set is worth opening for profit. A booster returns only about 30 to 54% of its price in expected card value. If you’re opening for the thrill, the best expected-value picks are Perfect Order, Surging Sparks and Destined Rivals (~48 to 54% return). Counter-intuitively, the set with the most valuable cards (Ascended Heroes) is the worst to open. Its packs are simply the priciest. If you want a specific card, buying the single is always cheaper. Card prices below come from the PixelBinder card database; pack prices from Cardmarket (July 2026).

How did we calculate “worth opening”?

We turned each set into one number: the expected card value a single booster returns, divided by what the booster costs. A modern English booster (Scarlet & Violet + Mega Evolution eras) holds 10 game cards. That means 4 commons, 3 uncommons, and two slots that carry all the value. The first is a reverse-holo/hit slot, where Illustration, Special Illustration and Hyper rares appear. The second is a guaranteed rare-or-better slot (rare holo, Double Rare “ex”, or Ultra Rare full-art).

For each set we computed the expected value of one pack:

Expected pack value = Σ (pull rate of each rarity × that rarity’s average price in the set)

• Average price per rarity, pulled straight from the PixelBinder catalog for that set.
• Pull rates, from large community sample openings: Double Rare ≈ 1 in 7 (SV) / 1 in 5 (Mega era), Ultra Rare ≈ 1 in 13 to 15, Illustration Rare ≈ 1 in 9 to 13, Special Illustration Rare ≈ 1 in 60 to 100, Hyper/gold rare ≈ 1 in 100 to 1,260. The Pokémon Company publishes no official English pull rates, so treat these as informed estimates.
• Pack cost, the real Cardmarket single-booster 30-day average price, i.e. what one loose pack actually costs. Buying a sealed box drops the per-pack cost ~15 to 30%, but you buy 36 at once. Loose packs on eBay run higher. Only Destined Rivals’ price is directly verified. The others are Cardmarket estimates, so treat gaps under ~5 points as noise.

Return % = expected pack value ÷ pack cost. Above 100% would mean packs are underpriced, and they never are on average. A higher figure is simply less bad. If you’re unsure which set a pull even belongs to, our guide to reading a card’s set symbol and number sorts that out.

The ranking: recent sets by opening return

Here is every recent standard set, ranked from best opening return to worst. The winners are deep sets whose packs stay cheap. The losers are the freshest, most hyped boxes.

Avg card value = the mean market price of a single card in the set, from pixel-binder.com/cards/. Pack cost = Cardmarket single-booster 30-day average, July 2026. All figures are estimates and move with the market.

What do the numbers actually say?

Three patterns explain the whole table: cheap packs win, expensive cards lie, and fresh boxes cost too much. Here is each one.

The winners are the deep sets with still-cheap packs. Perfect Order tops the list not because its cards are the most valuable, but because its packs are cheap (~€4.3). It’s a 2026 set that hasn’t spiked. Surging Sparks and Destined Rivals follow. Both are deep sets with genuinely expensive Special Illustration Rares (Destined Rivals’ Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex is ~€635, Surging Sparks’ Pikachu ex alt art ~€315), and their packs sit around €6 to 7.

High card value is a trap for openers. Ascended Heroes has the highest average card value on the whole list, €16.29 per card, headlined by a Pikachu ex alt art near €1,029. Yet it’s the worst set to open. Why? Its packs cost ~€12.5, because the hype that makes the cards expensive also makes the sealed product expensive. You’re paying for the chase up front. The value-per-card figure on the card hub tells you where the money is sitting, not where opening is smart.

Newness inflates pack prices faster than card value. The freshest, most hyped boxes (Ascended Heroes, Phantasmal Flames) carry the priciest packs. Their opening return is mediocre-to-poor despite monster chase cards, such as Phantasmal Flames’ Mega Charizard X alt art at ~€821. Waiting a year for a set’s pack price to settle usually improves the math.

Are the special sets worth opening?

Not by the same math. Three recent sets don’t come as standard 36-pack boxes and follow their own rules. Their cards can be spectacular, but their odd formats make pack economics murky:

• Prismatic Evolutions (Évolutions Prismatiques), the value king, ~€25 per card on average, headlined by an Umbreon ex alt art near €1,069. But single packs run ~€12 to 13 and it’s sold mostly in bundles/ETBs. So its opening return is only ~37 to 42%: the high card value is cancelled out by the high pack price.
• White Flare & Black Bolt, special July 2025 sets stuffed with Illustration Rares (70+ in White Flare, averaging €18) and ultra-chase “Black/White Rares” (€460+). Packs are ~€8.5 and the unusual structure makes pull rates uncertain. We won’t put a hard number on them, but they’re the most interesting wildcard to open.
• Paldean Fates (Destinées de Paldea), a shiny-Pokémon set with a Mew ex alt art near €708. But it’s out of print and sold mostly in bundles/tins, so clean single-pack pricing is thin and the opening return is poor.

Should you open packs or buy singles?

Buy the single almost every time, because a pack’s expected value is only a third to a half of its price. Across every recent set, opening sealed product is a heavy net loss on average. You get back only about a third to a half of what you spend. That’s how the supply chain is priced, and loose packs on eBay tilt it further against you. That’s not a reason never to open: the fun is in the pull, and a single Special Illustration Rare can carry a whole box. But if your goal is to own a card, buying the single is the rational move every time.

If you do open, the smart picks by expected value are Perfect Order, Surging Sparks and Destined Rivals, deep sets whose packs are still reasonably priced. Avoid the freshest, hype-priced boxes (Ascended Heroes, Phantasmal Flames) if value is your metric. You’re paying top price for the same odds. For a wider view of where old and new sets sit, see how much a full Sun & Moon era set is really worth today, and whether Japanese Pokémon cards are worth more than their English twins.

Check what your pulls are actually worth

Whatever you open, PixelBinder tells you instantly what each card is worth. Scan a card in English, French or Japanese and it shows the live Cardmarket value. It adds the card to your collection and totals up what a pack or box really returned. You can see, card by card, whether that box beat the odds. It even tracks your whole collection’s value as prices move. Browse every set and its prices in the card database. Start free with 25 scans.